Research and Judgment on the Trends of Major Semiconductor Products after Trump Took Office

After Trump took office, the market pattern of semiconductor products will present multi-dimensional changing trends, which are mainly reflected in the Chinese market and the global market at two major levels, and each sub-sector performs differently due to the influence of different factors.

I. Trends in the Chinese Market

In terms of the Chinese market, it is expected that the sanction measures will be further escalated after Trump takes office. This will bring significant domestic substitution opportunities for the upstream equipment and materials fields of the domestic semiconductor industry. For high-computing-power chip products represented by AI chips and HBM, the restrictive measures may continue to become stricter. Data centers, AI-related industries, and intelligent vehicles will become the key areas of US restrictions on China. However, this also indicates that these sub-categories in China contain huge growth potential in the process of domestic substitution.

II. Trends in the Global Market

(A) AI Field

The United States, as the main beneficiary of the global AI industry, occupies an important position in this field. In 2023, the scale of its AI industry accounted for more than one-third of the global total, and it is expected that the proportion of AI servers in the global demand will exceed 60% in 2024. With Trump taking office, the AI industry will continue to receive favorable policies, and related AI chip categories such as GPU are expected to maintain a trend of both increasing volume and price.

(B) Electric Vehicle Field

The market pattern of electric vehicles will change significantly. The growth momentum of the US market (electric vehicle sales in Q3 2024 accounted for 9.5% of the global total) is expected to slow down, and coupled with the continuous sluggishness of the European market (electric vehicle sales in Q3 2024 accounted for 16.9% of the global total), the "deterioration" degree of core automotive-grade categories such as MCU, power devices, and analog chips will intensify under the downward pressure of overseas automotive markets. However, China (electric vehicle sales in Q3 2024 accounted for 65.3% of the global total), as the world's major electric vehicle market, shows a strong growth trend. It can be foreseen that next year, the global automotive chip market will present a demand pattern of polarization between domestic and foreign markets.

(C) New Energy Field

Affected by the growth trend of the US market, the recovery process of power devices such as IGBT and MOSFET in the upstream of the new energy field, as well as new energy categories such as MCU and PMIC, may not meet expectations. Meanwhile, as the world's largest exporter of photovoltaic, energy storage, and wind power, China's growth performance in the US market may fluctuate in the future.

(D) Consumer Electronics Field

Under the effect of tariff policies, the Apple supply chain and some PC production links may continue to migrate overseas, which will prompt new changes in the global consumer electronics supply chain. In the context of the weak recovery of the current market situation, the uncertain factors in the consumer electronics market have increased significantly.

III. Growth Expectations of Representative Manufacturers

Based on the above market trends, the growth expectations of different types of semiconductor manufacturers also show a differentiated trend. AI manufacturers represented by NVIDIA, Broadcom, AMD, and SK Hynix are expected to achieve strong growth next year; consumer manufacturers such as Qualcomm and Skyworks will have relatively stable growth; while automotive-grade manufacturers such as Infineon and Bosch will have relatively sluggish growth expectations.

IV. Policy Impacts and Prospects for Industrial Development

Looking back at the past transfer processes of the global semiconductor industry, it can be seen that the development of the semiconductor industry is not solely dominated by the market, and industrial policies play a crucial role. At present, under the situation that it is difficult to obtain excessive returns through normal trade, the United States is quite familiar with restarting trade disputes. By sorting out Trump's past policies and his main policy propositions in this election campaign, it can be inferred that if Trump is re-elected, the sanctions on China's semiconductor industry will most likely intensify in the next four years. Recently, TSMC and Samsung Electronics have successively suspended the supply of chips with 7-nanometer and more advanced processes to China, basically confirming this expectation. Among them, semiconductor equipment and high-performance chips will become the key restriction areas, AI, which represents the direction of future scientific and technological innovation, is an even more key regulated area, China's leading sub-markets such as new energy and electric vehicles will also become the key objects of tax increases, and consumer electronics will also face certain fluctuations due to the impact of tariffs.

Overall, the game and cooperation between China and the United States in the semiconductor field will be a long and continuously escalating complex process. In this context, independence and self-reliance are undoubtedly the only way for the domestic semiconductor industry to seek long-term development.