"Analysis of the Impact of Trump 2.0 on the Semiconductor Industry Chain"

I. General Overview of the Impact on the Semiconductor Industry Chain

After comprehensively sorting out information from various sources, Chip  has found that the impact of the Trump 2.0 era on the semiconductor industry chain is mainly reflected in two key aspects, which are worthy of in-depth exploration.

(A) The Semiconductor Industry Level

In the field of the semiconductor industry, the focus is on the chip acts related to China and export restriction measures, and at the same time, tariff policies may also change. Previously, the Biden administration continued the restrictive strategies against China's semiconductor industry during the Trump era, mainly covering two major aspects: First, through the Chip Act, subsidies were provided to attract the semiconductor manufacturing industry back to the United States; second, in cooperation with Japan and the Netherlands, export restrictions were imposed on semiconductor equipment procurement orders from Chinese enterprises.

Tariff policies have always been a crucial area that Trump and previous U.S. administrations have attached great importance to. During the election campaign, Trump clearly stated that subsidies were not a good solution and proposed to impose a tariff as high as 60% on China and 10 - 20% on other countries, attempting to force overseas semiconductor enterprises such as TSMC to relocate to the United States.

Chip  predicts that in the future, Trump may cancel the chip subsidy policy and instead plan to use tariff means to attract manufacturers from Taiwan, China and South Korea to build advanced semiconductor factories in the United States, mainly focusing on wafer foundry and advanced packaging and testing fields. Meanwhile, the scope of U.S. semiconductor export restrictions on China will continue, especially for high-performance chips used in fields such as data centers/AI and intelligent vehicles (such as AI chips, HBM storage chips, etc.). This will cause certain impacts on relevant domestic fields in the short term, but in the long run, it may accelerate the process of domestic substitution. In addition, the United States may also impose additional tariffs on other countries around the world, which will continue to have an adverse impact on the stability of the global semiconductor industry.

(B) The Application Market Field

In the application market aspect, the Trump administration will focus on supporting AI-related industries, while industries such as electric vehicles, new energy, and consumer electronics may face adjustments.

The AI industry will continue to benefit from favorable policies. Trump holds a positive stance on AI, emphasizing that the United States must maintain its leading position in the AI field and promised to abolish the executive order on AI safety signed by Biden during the December 2023 election campaign. However, it should be noted that the main members of the Trump camp have different views on AI and its regulatory issues. Musk believes that the potential risks brought by AI cannot be ignored and advocates taking active regulatory measures to prevent possible negative impacts, striving to achieve a balance between innovation and safety. While JD Vance tends to adopt a more liberal policy on AI regulation, is committed to promoting deregulation, and publicly supports open-source artificial intelligence.

The development of the clean energy industry may encounter obstacles. The Biden administration was one of the main advocates of clean energy technologies such as electric vehicles, photovoltaic power, and wind power on a global scale. In 2022, it launched the "Inflation Reduction Act 2022". However, Trump believes that this act is a harmful legislation ("Misnamed IRA") and points out that as one of the largest oil-exporting countries in the world, the United States does not need to rush to develop clean technology fields such as electric vehicles, photovoltaic power, and wind power.

The supply chain of the consumer electronics industry may face restructuring. According to CNBC (November 2024), Trump proposed to impose a general tariff of 10% or 20% on all imported goods and at least 60% on Chinese goods. Judging from the dynamics of leading manufacturers in the industry, manufacturers represented by Dell (PC), Hewlett-Packard (PC), and Apple (mobile phones, PCs, and wearable devices, etc.) are actively accelerating the layout of production capacity overseas, especially in the Indian market. If the United States further raises tariffs this time, it is highly likely to accelerate the restructuring process of the global consumer electronics industry chain.